MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT) Earnings Summary
MSFT Earnings Beat Rate & Surprise History
MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT) has beaten EPS estimates in 9 of its last 9 reported quarters (+100%), and beaten revenue estimates in 9 of 9 (+100%).
On balance, analysts have tended to underestimate MSFT's earnings. It is currently on a 9-quarter EPS beat streak. The average EPS surprise runs +9.0%, with the biggest beat at +34.5% and the biggest miss at +0.6%.
How often MSFT has cleared Wall Street's bar, for EPS and revenue separately, companies can beat one and miss the other. See how analysts are rating it now →
Based on 8 quarters where a report date lines up with price history on record. Reaction day is determined from report timing, for after-market-close (AMC) reports, the reaction shows up the next trading day; for before-market-open (BMO) reports, it's the report day itself.
| Result | Next day | 5 trading days | 20 trading days |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS beat | -0.2% (38% pos, n=8) | +0.7% (38% pos, n=8) | +1.7% (38% pos, n=8) |
| EPS miss | — | — | — |
Average earnings-day move (either direction): +7.0%. Largest on record: +15.5%.
Every quarter with reaction data, side by side. Rows where the surprise direction and the stock's move disagree are highlighted.
| Quarter | Report Date | EPS Surprise | Rev Surprise | Next-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 '26 | Jul 29, 2026 | +13.3% | +2.7% | +15.5% |
| Q3 '26 | Apr 29, 2026 | +5.1% | +1.8% | -3.9% |
| Q2 '26 | Jan 28, 2026 | +34.5% | +1.2% | -10.0% |
| Q1 '26 | Oct 29, 2025 | +1.3% | +2.9% | -2.9% |
| Q4 '25 | Jul 30, 2025 | +8.1% | +3.4% | +3.9% |
| Q3 '25 | Apr 30, 2025 | +7.9% | +2.4% | +7.6% |
| Q2 '25 | Jan 29, 2025 | +3.5% | +1.1% | -6.2% |
| Q1 '25 | Oct 30, 2024 | +6.3% | +1.6% | -6.1% |
A beat doesn't guarantee a rally, and a miss doesn't guarantee a drop, expectations already priced in can flip the reaction.
Beat/miss alone doesn't say how big, a company that beats by 0.1% every quarter behaves very differently from one that swings ±20%.
| Avg Surprise | Median | Largest Beat | Largest Miss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | +9.0% | +6.3% | +34.5% | +0.6% |
| Revenue | +2.0% | +1.8% | +3.4% | +0.5% |
More analysts covering a stock generally means more scrutiny and (often) tighter estimates.
Average surprise size by fiscal quarter, some businesses are just more predictable in certain quarters than others.
| Fiscal Quarter | Avg EPS Surprise | Avg Revenue Surprise | Years on Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | +3.8% | +2.2% | 2 |
| Q2 | +19.0% | +1.2% | 2 |
| Q3 | +6.5% | +2.1% | 2 |
| Q4 | +7.4% | +2.2% | 3 |
Each quarter compared to the same fiscal quarter one year earlier, the standard way to strip out seasonality.
| Quarter | Report Date | EPS Growth | Revenue Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 '26 | Jul 29, 2026 | +31.8% | +17.8% |
| Q3 '26 | Apr 29, 2026 | +23.4% | +18.3% |
| Q2 '26 | Jan 28, 2026 | +59.8% | +16.7% |
| Q1 '26 | Oct 29, 2025 | +12.7% | +18.4% |
| Q4 '25 | Jul 30, 2025 | +23.7% | +18.1% |
Objective, rule-based checks, not a subjective rating.
How often does MSFT beat EPS estimates?
MICROSOFT CORP has beaten EPS estimates in 9 of its last 9 reported quarters, a +100% beat rate. The average surprise is +9.0%.
How often does MSFT beat revenue estimates?
MSFT has beaten revenue estimates in 9 of its last 9 reported quarters, a +100% beat rate.
What is MSFT's biggest earnings surprise?
MSFT's largest EPS beat on record is +34.5%, and its largest EPS miss is +0.6%.
Is MSFT currently on an earnings beat or miss streak?
MSFT is on a 9-quarter EPS beat streak. Its longest beat streak on record is 9 quarters; its longest miss streak is 0 quarters.
Do analysts usually underestimate or overestimate MSFT?
Analysts have tended to underestimate MSFT's results, based on a +100% EPS beat rate over the last 9 reported quarters.
Every reported quarter on record, estimate vs. actual.
| Quarter | Report Date | EPS Est | EPS Actual | EPS Surprise | Revenue Est | Revenue Actual | Revenue Surprise | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 '26 | Jul 29, 2026 | $4.24 | $4.81 | +13.3% | $87.62B | $90.01B | +2.7% | 25 |
| Q3 '26 | Apr 29, 2026 | $4.06 | $4.27 | +5.1% | $81.44B | $82.89B | +1.8% | 23 |
| Q2 '26 | Jan 28, 2026 | $3.83 | $5.16 | +34.5% | $80.31B | $81.27B | +1.2% | 23 |
| Q1 '26 | Oct 29, 2025 | $3.67 | $3.72 | +1.3% | $75.49B | $77.67B | +2.9% | 19 |
| Q4 '25 | Jul 30, 2025 | $3.38 | $3.65 | +8.1% | $73.93B | $76.44B | +3.4% | 18 |
| Q3 '25 | Apr 30, 2025 | $3.21 | $3.46 | +7.9% | $68.44B | $70.07B | +2.4% | 19 |
| Q2 '25 | Jan 29, 2025 | $3.12 | $3.23 | +3.5% | $68.87B | $69.63B | +1.1% | 18 |
| Q1 '25 | Oct 30, 2024 | $3.11 | $3.30 | +6.3% | $64.56B | $65.59B | +1.6% | 17 |
| Q4 '24 | — | $2.93 | $2.95 | +0.6% | $64.38B | $64.73B | +0.5% | 19 |